Year-Round E-15 Sales Will Have Unintended Consequences

The Bull Moose Project just put out a memo on E-15 and the Renewable Fuel Standard, and the core argument is simple: permanently legalizing year-round E-15 sales without first fixing the RFS is a bad deal for consumers, small refiners, and American energy security.

While the Trump administration has used E-15 waivers as a response to rising gas prices following military action in Iran, the approach is ineffective and potentially counterproductive. Despite repeated summer waivers, few retailers actually offer E-15 — indicating weak consumer demand — and expanded E-15 authorization has historically been used to justify higher ethanol blending mandates that raise compliance costs passed directly to consumers. Americans are already paying an estimated 29 cents per gallon in RFS-related costs, totaling roughly $37 billion annually.

Permanently authorizing E-15 without RFS reform poses three key risks: higher pump prices (not lower), harm to small and mid-sized refiners who lack the infrastructure and statutory relief available to large integrated oil companies, and supply chain instability that could trigger fuel shortages.

Our core recommendation is to reform the RFS rather than pursuing E-15 expansion as a political quick fix.