Resisting The Tripolar Temptation

The United States of America is beginning the multipolar era with an enviable position on the global chess board. If one imagines a three-way game, the other two players, Russia and China, are in far weaker positions. America’s hemisphere is currently free of serious adversaries and the Trump Corollary, declared last December, has made clear the United States will continue to keep adversaries out of the Western hemisphere and the North Atlantic. By contrast, China finds itself hemmed in, unable to act beyond the first island chain. And Russia is still bogged down in the Russo-Ukrainian War, a conflict that has resulted in even more NATO member states appearing on its borders.

Which all likely explains the Trump administration’s efforts thus far in Iran. The Islamic Republic is a close ally of both Moscow and Beijing, helping them project power in the Middle East and providing both with differing kinds of aid. Russia’s efforts in the Russo-Ukrainian War were aided by Iranian-made drones, and China saves billions per year on Iranian oil imports. Iran’s location also allows it to control the Strait of Hormuz and, until Israel was able to decimate their proxies, gave it a strong perch from which to influence events across the entire Middle East. Dislodging the regime and replacing it with a liberal democracy, or at least a pro-Western government, could therefore pay dividends. This all does not even consider the moral argument: that Tehran’s regime is sadistic and cruel, torturing and killing women for walking down the street with their hair out and executing prisoners, and the world would be better off without it.

The administration is currently weighing its options, which range from diplomatic criticism to cyber-attacks to regime-ending kinetic strikes. But even with all of the above, the Trump administration should pause before delivering the finishing blow.

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