Germany is Out of Options

It has become conventional wisdom that Europe, and specifically Germany, is rearming itself. The widespread belief is that the continent, spurred by America’s decreasing interest in NATO, has finally decided it’s time to arm up in a significant way.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set things off by announcing in early 2025 that the EU would increase defense spending by €800 billion by 2030. That amount is, of course, less than the United States spends on defense in a single year, but for Europe it constituted a bold statement. Her speech was followed, months later, by the German government’s announcement that it would increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2029.

Both pledges turned out to be false. Von der Leyen’s claim proved to be worth only €150 billion, the rest being entirely hypothetical. Even the €150 billion figure is somewhat of a mirage, as almost one-third of that amount will go to Poland, which has already rearmed itself. Germany’s promise, meanwhile, was quietly walked back just months later with a second announcement that the true figure would only be 3.05%.

These later developments underscore the reality that Europe, far from rearming, is really just playing for time—and that goes double for Germany. All of their promises—the EU’s 2030 pledge, Germany’s 2029 declaration—are set to be realized after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office.

Read more at Commonplace.