Comment on Reconciliation 3.0
Today, I filed a comment regarding House Republicans’ decision to pursue a third reconciliation bill. I offered strong support for their efforts, while encouraging them to make the bill as expansive as possible.
To that end, I argued that they should pursue a global, 10 percent tariff to act as a pay-for.
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Dear Chairman Arrington and Ranking Member Boyle:
On behalf of the Bull Moose Project, I write concerning plans for Reconciliation 3.0. This is a critically important step, and we commend the House Budget Committee for taking it. But it is also critically important that we get it right.
Building on Two Successful Reconciliation Bills
The 119th Congress, thanks to tireless efforts by Speaker Mike Johnson and Chairman Jodey Arrington, has already passed two landmark reconciliation bills. The first, the Big Beautiful Bill, managed to fulfill dozens of campaign promises in one fell swoop, from no tax on tips to the creation of Trump Accounts to ensuring that Americans will continue to pay low tax rates. The second, the Secure America Act, unlocked historic levels of funding for ICE and CBP.
However, there is more to be done, which is why the Bull Moose Project is pleased that Reconciliation 3.0 is going forward, with the planned markup of the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2027.
Our Recommendation: Go Big, But Include a Pay-For
With this comment, the Bull Moose Project does not seek to make specific policy prescriptions. Rather, our purpose is to encourage Republican elected representatives to go as big as they can on this third reconciliation bill. While the current reported makeup of the bill is a strong step, it is lacking in that important respect.
A Universal Tariff Is the Strongest Pay-For Option
That missing piece is a pay-for, which would help both to sell the bill to skeptical members and to the public. Cuts to services would likely be deeply unpopular and could cause enough internal disputes among elected Representatives to endanger passage.
An alternative is a global, 10 percent tariff.
According to modeling by the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA), a 10 percent universal tariff would raise approximately $2.63 trillion in federal revenue over ten years. The CBO has already credited the tariff increases implemented in 2025 with reducing primary deficits, writing: “We now project that increases in tariffs implemented from January 6, 2025, to November 15, 2025, will decrease primary deficits (which exclude net outlays for interest) by $2.5 trillion over 11 years if the higher tariffs persist throughout the 2025–2035 period.” While some of these tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court, they could be easily supplanted by new tariffs via Reconciliation 3.0.
If 10 percent is too difficult for passage, even a smaller tariff would still bring in billions, or still trillions, of dollars.
Precedent for Ambition Within the Byrd Rule
This would also enable Republicans to go truly big with Reconciliation 3.0. While the Senate’s Byrd Rule strongly limits what can be included, it still allows for plenty. Republicans should not forget that Democrats passed two massive reconciliation bills, the American Rescue Plan Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which were packed with their priorities.
Additional Priorities Worth Including
Republicans must likewise not be hesitant. There are a litany of policies which can be adopted, especially if the tariff pay-for is included as well:
Energy permitting reform
Fraud reduction measures
Extending the existing ban on funding for Planned Parenthood
A further expansion of the Section 45X advanced manufacturing tax credit
Incentives for states to adopt SAVE America Act-type voter ID programs
Sincerely,
Anthony J. Constantini
Policy Director
The Bull Moose Project
Washington, DC
